D. La Serena 4-3 Palestino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates D. La Serena at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this D. La Serena vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
D. La Serena host Palestino at Estadio La Portada de La Serena in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 20 July 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, D. La Serena stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for D. La Serena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, D. La Serena have posted 3W 2D 0L at Estadio La Portada de La Serena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio La Portada de La Serena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — D. La Serena are significantly better at Estadio La Portada de La Serena than their overall form suggests.
Palestino — All Games: 3W 2D 4L from 9 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.22 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Palestino have posted 2W 0D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: D. La Serena 1.50 PPG, Palestino 1.22 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
D. La Serena in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Palestino in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (D. La Serena 11% | Palestino 44%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (D. La Serena 22% | Palestino 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. La Serena 1.23 xG and Palestino 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. La Serena attack 1.194 / defence 0.945 | Palestino attack 0.875 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 0.905 / away 0.901. Data: 10 D. La Serena games / 9 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: D. La Serena 46% | Draw 32% | Palestino 21%. Fair-value odds: D. La Serena 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Palestino 4.76. D. La Serena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates D. La Serena as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on D. La Serena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: D. La Serena 20% | Palestino 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. La Serena vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio La Portada de La Serena • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Jul 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. La Serena 46% | Draw 32% | Palestino 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG D. La Serena 1.23 / Palestino 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: D. La Serena attack 1.194 / def 0.945 | Palestino attack 0.875 / def 1.134 | league avg home 0.905 / away 0.901 • Poisson stance: D. La Serena (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
D. La Serena xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Palestino xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. La Serena vs Palestino kick off?
D. La Serena vs Palestino kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 20 July 2021 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What was the final score in D. La Serena vs Palestino?
D. La Serena 4 - 3 Palestino.
Where is D. La Serena vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What competition is D. La Serena vs Palestino part of?
D. La Serena vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. La Serena vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives D. La Serena a 46% chance of winning, Palestino a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making D. La Serena the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both D. La Serena and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will D. La Serena vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Palestino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are D. La Serena and Palestino in?
D. La Serena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Palestino (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from D. La Serena's attack rating (1.19) and Palestino's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus D. La Serena's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
D. La Serena Win
46%
2.15
32%
3.11
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
D. La Serena xG
Total xG
1.97
0.74
Palestino xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
6%
15.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 10.4 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. La Serena vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are D. La Serena and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for D. La Serena and 0.74 for Palestino, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for D. La Serena vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
D. La Serena's recent record stands at 4W 3D 2L from 9 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for D. La Serena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palestino, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 4L across 9 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours D. La Serena by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Palestino heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, D. La Serena have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palestino's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, D. La Serena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
D. La Serena are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.00 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: D. La Serena have seen both teams score in 11% of their recent games.
Defensively: D. La Serena have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. La Serena
Blended
Palestino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are D. La Serena and Palestino in coming into this match?
D. La Serena have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while Palestino have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — D. La Serena at home or Palestino away?
D. La Serena's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — D. La Serena at home: 2.00 PPG; Palestino away: 1.50 PPG.
Have D. La Serena or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
D. La Serena have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Palestino in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between D. La Serena and Palestino runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palestino go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2022, when Palestino won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
D. La Serena's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
D. La Serena
2
Draws
4
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Palestino?
From 7 meetings on record, D. La Serena have won 1, Palestino have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did D. La Serena and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Palestino 5-1 D. La Serena.
Who has won more matches between D. La Serena and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
D. La Serena tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — D. La Serena 25%, Palestino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (D. La Serena) and 50% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: D. La Serena keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; D. La Serena have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. La Serena home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when D. La Serena play Palestino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of D. La Serena's recent matches and 50% of Palestino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is D. La Serena vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of D. La Serena's recent games and 50% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do D. La Serena and Palestino tend to score early?
D. La Serena have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Palestino in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as D. La Serena edge out Palestino 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. La Serena beat Palestino 4-3 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.23 xG and Palestino 0.74 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. D. La Serena beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palestino outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 1.19 / defence 0.94 against Palestino attack 0.88 / defence 1.13, drawn from 10/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 46% | Draw 32% | Palestino 21%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (D. La Serena 22%, Palestino 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
D. La Serena's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 11% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Palestino's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, D. La Serena arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. D. La Serena (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.