D. La Serena 3-0 Nublense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nublense at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this D. La Serena vs Nublense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio La Portada de La Serena plays host to D. La Serena versus Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 30 July 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
D. La Serena have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for D. La Serena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
D. La Serena at Estadio La Portada de La Serena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Nublense are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — D. La Serena lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with Nublense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
D. La Serena half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Nublense half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — D. La Serena 51% versus Nublense 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (D. La Serena 45% | Nublense 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. La Serena 0.91 xG and Nublense 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. La Serena attack 0.825 / defence 1.123 | Nublense attack 1.039 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.106. Nublense's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 D. La Serena games / 51 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: D. La Serena 26% | Draw 28% | Nublense 45%. Fair-value odds: D. La Serena 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Nublense 2.22. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: D. La Serena 70% | Nublense 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. La Serena vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio La Portada de La Serena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. La Serena 26% | Draw 28% | Nublense 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG D. La Serena 0.91 / Nublense 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: D. La Serena attack 0.825 / def 1.123 | Nublense attack 1.039 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Nublense (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
D. La Serena xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Nublense xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. La Serena vs Nublense kick off?
D. La Serena vs Nublense kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What was the final score in D. La Serena vs Nublense?
D. La Serena 3 - 0 Nublense.
Where is D. La Serena vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What competition is D. La Serena vs Nublense part of?
D. La Serena vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. La Serena vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives D. La Serena a 26% chance of winning, Nublense a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both D. La Serena and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will D. La Serena vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Nublense?
Record (3 meetings): D. La Serena 2W | Draws 0 | Nublense 1W.
What form are D. La Serena and Nublense in?
D. La Serena (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Nublense (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
D. La Serena's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (1.04x) against D. La Serena's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
26%
3.83
28%
3.52
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
D. La Serena xG
Total xG
2.20
1.29
Nublense xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
7%
13.92
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.4 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. La Serena vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are D. La Serena and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for D. La Serena and 1.29 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for D. La Serena vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, D. La Serena have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 13W 17D 21L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for D. La Serena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nublense's form line: 21W 17D 13L from 51 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nublense are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against D. La Serena.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, D. La Serena have posted 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (8W 8D 10L).
On the road, Nublense have gone 8W 10D 8L from 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
D. La Serena are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.57 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. La Serena
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are D. La Serena and Nublense in coming into this match?
D. La Serena have gone 13W 17D 21L in their last 51 games (1.10 PPG), while Nublense have gone 21W 17D 13L in their last 51 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — D. La Serena at home or Nublense away?
Nublense's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — D. La Serena at home: 1.23 PPG; Nublense away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: D. La Serena won 3-0 on 30 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, D. La Serena have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
D. La Serena
2
Draws
2
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Nublense?
From 7 meetings on record, D. La Serena have won 3, Nublense have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did D. La Serena and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nublense 2-2 D. La Serena.
Who has won more matches between D. La Serena and Nublense?
D. La Serena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
D. La Serena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — D. La Serena 54%, Nublense 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (D. La Serena) and 42% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: D. La Serena keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; D. La Serena have failed to score in 31% of games; Nublense in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. La Serena home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when D. La Serena play Nublense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of D. La Serena's games and 58% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is D. La Serena vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of D. La Serena's recent games and 42% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do D. La Serena and Nublense tend to score early?
D. La Serena have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Nublense in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant D. La Serena run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nublense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. La Serena beat Nublense 3-0 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 0.91 xG and Nublense 1.29 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. D. La Serena beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nublense landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Nublense attack 1.04 / defence 0.73, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 26% | Draw 28% | Nublense 45%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual D. La Serena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (D. La Serena 45%, Nublense 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
D. La Serena's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Nublense's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nublense arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with D. La Serena winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. D. La Serena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.