D. La Serena 1-3 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton de Vina make the trip to Estadio La Portada de La Serena to face D. La Serena in Primera División, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 1 April 2022 at 21:30 UTC.
Form
D. La Serena (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
D. La Serena's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estadio La Portada de La Serena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Everton de Vina have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. D. La Serena's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Everton de Vina's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for D. La Serena, 1 for Everton de Vina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Everton de Vina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
D. La Serena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — D. La Serena 47% versus Everton de Vina 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (D. La Serena 41% | Everton de Vina 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. La Serena 1.18 xG and Everton de Vina 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. La Serena attack 0.966 / defence 1.176 | Everton de Vina attack 0.899 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.153. Data: 39 D. La Serena games / 39 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: D. La Serena 35% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 37%. Fair-value odds: D. La Serena 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Everton de Vina 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form D. La Serena (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: D. La Serena 50% | Everton de Vina 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio La Portada de La Serena • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. La Serena 35% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG D. La Serena 1.18 / Everton de Vina 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: D. La Serena attack 0.966 / def 1.176 | Everton de Vina attack 0.899 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
D. La Serena xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Everton de Vina xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina kick off?
D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 21:30 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What was the final score in D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
D. La Serena 1 - 3 Everton de Vina.
Where is D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What competition is D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina part of?
D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives D. La Serena a 35% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both D. La Serena and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Everton de Vina?
Record (2 meetings): D. La Serena 1W | Draws 0 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are D. La Serena and Everton de Vina in?
D. La Serena (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from D. La Serena's attack rating (0.97) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.90x) against D. La Serena's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
35%
2.88
28%
3.51
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
D. La Serena xG
Total xG
2.40
1.22
Everton de Vina xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are D. La Serena and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for D. La Serena and 1.22 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, D. La Serena have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 9W 12D 11L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Everton de Vina's form line: 10W 9D 13L from 32 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for D. La Serena against 1.22 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, D. La Serena have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 5D 7L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
D. La Serena are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.91 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. La Serena
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are D. La Serena and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
D. La Serena have gone 9W 12D 11L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — D. La Serena at home or Everton de Vina away?
D. La Serena's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — D. La Serena at home: 1.44 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.06 PPG.
Have D. La Serena or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
D. La Serena have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: D. La Serena won 0-4 on 1 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, D. La Serena have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
D. La Serena
0
Draws
4
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Everton de Vina?
From 7 meetings on record, D. La Serena have won 3, Everton de Vina have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did D. La Serena and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when D. La Serena 1-0 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between D. La Serena and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
D. La Serena see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — D. La Serena 44%, Everton de Vina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for D. La Serena and 25% for Everton de Vina.
On the defensive side: D. La Serena keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; D. La Serena have failed to score in 38% of games; Everton de Vina in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. La Serena home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when D. La Serena play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of D. La Serena's recent matches and 44% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of D. La Serena's recent games and 25% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over D. La Serena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat D. La Serena 1-3 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.18 xG and Everton de Vina 1.22 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.97 / defence 1.18 against Everton de Vina attack 0.90 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 35% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 37%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (D. La Serena 41%, Everton de Vina 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
D. La Serena's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — D. La Serena 1.22 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. D. La Serena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.