D. La Serena 0-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates D. La Serena at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton de Vina make the trip to Estadio La Portada de La Serena to face D. La Serena in Primera División, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
D. La Serena (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for D. La Serena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
D. La Serena's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estadio La Portada de La Serena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio La Portada de La Serena. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — D. La Serena are significantly better at Estadio La Portada de La Serena than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for D. La Serena, 0 for Everton de Vina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2021, ended 4–0 with D. La Serena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
D. La Serena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — D. La Serena 43% versus Everton de Vina 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (D. La Serena 38% | Everton de Vina 19%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. La Serena 1.23 xG and Everton de Vina 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. La Serena attack 1.049 / defence 1.181 | Everton de Vina attack 0.572 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.204. Data: 21 D. La Serena games / 21 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: D. La Serena 44% | Draw 34% | Everton de Vina 22%. Fair-value odds: D. La Serena 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Everton de Vina 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates D. La Serena as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on D. La Serena if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: D. La Serena 40% | Everton de Vina 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio La Portada de La Serena • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. La Serena 44% | Draw 34% | Everton de Vina 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG D. La Serena 1.23 / Everton de Vina 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: D. La Serena attack 1.049 / def 1.181 | Everton de Vina attack 0.572 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: D. La Serena (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
D. La Serena xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Everton de Vina xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina kick off?
D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What was the final score in D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
D. La Serena 0 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What competition is D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina part of?
D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives D. La Serena a 44% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making D. La Serena the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both D. La Serena and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Everton de Vina?
Record (1 meetings): D. La Serena 1W | Draws 0 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are D. La Serena and Everton de Vina in?
D. La Serena (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from D. La Serena's attack rating (1.05) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.57x) against D. La Serena's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
D. La Serena Win
44%
2.29
34%
2.92
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
D. La Serena xG
Total xG
2.05
0.81
Everton de Vina xG
2.29
44%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
6%
15.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are D. La Serena and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for D. La Serena and 0.81 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, D. La Serena have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 6W 7D 8L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for D. La Serena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina's form line: 7W 7D 7L from 21 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for D. La Serena against 1.33 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, D. La Serena have posted 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — D. La Serena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, D. La Serena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
D. La Serena are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.81 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina in 29%.
Defensively: D. La Serena have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Everton de Vina in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. La Serena
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are D. La Serena and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
D. La Serena have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — D. La Serena at home or Everton de Vina away?
D. La Serena's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — D. La Serena at home: 1.80 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.20 PPG.
Have D. La Serena or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
D. La Serena have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: D. La Serena won 0-4 on 1 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, D. La Serena have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
D. La Serena
0
Draws
4
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Everton de Vina?
From 7 meetings on record, D. La Serena have won 3, Everton de Vina have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did D. La Serena and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when D. La Serena 1-0 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between D. La Serena and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
D. La Serena see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Everton de Vina tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (D. La Serena) and 30% (Everton de Vina) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for D. La Serena and 10% for Everton de Vina.
On the defensive side: D. La Serena keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; D. La Serena have failed to score in 30% of games; Everton de Vina in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. La Serena home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when D. La Serena play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of D. La Serena's recent matches and 30% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is D. La Serena vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of D. La Serena's recent games and 10% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do D. La Serena and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
D. La Serena have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 30% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over D. La Serena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat D. La Serena 0-2 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.23 xG and Everton de Vina 0.81 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. D. La Serena fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 1.05 / defence 1.18 against Everton de Vina attack 0.57 / defence 1.06, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 44% | Draw 34% | Everton de Vina 22%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Everton de Vina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (D. La Serena 38%, Everton de Vina 19%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
D. La Serena's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — D. La Serena 1.19 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. D. La Serena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.