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Prediction vindicated as D. La Serena edge out Everton de Vina 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

D. La Serena beat Everton de Vina 2-1 at Estadio La Portada, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.41 xG and Everton de Vina 1.00 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Everton de Vina attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 44% | Draw 32% | Everton de Vina 24%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights