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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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D. La Serena and Deportes Limache share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

D. La Serena and Deportes Limache finished level at 1-1 at Estadio La Portada, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 2.09 xG and Deportes Limache 1.36 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. D. La Serena fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.98 / defence 1.34 against Deportes Limache attack 0.96 / defence 1.37, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 54% | Draw 21% | Deportes Limache 25%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights