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Prediction vindicated as D. La Serena edge out Deportes Iquique 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

D. La Serena beat Deportes Iquique 2-1 at Estadio La Portada, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.49 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.09 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.04 / defence 1.15, drawn from 10/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 46% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 28%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights