D. La Serena 1-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates D. La Serena at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio La Portada de La Serena to take on D. La Serena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
D. La Serena — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, D. La Serena have posted 2W 3D 5L at Estadio La Portada de La Serena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. La Serena 1.57 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. La Serena attack 0.911 / defence 1.035 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.718 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.205. Coquimbo Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing D. La Serena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 D. La Serena games / 3 Coquimbo Unido games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: D. La Serena 51% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 19%. Fair-value odds: D. La Serena 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Coquimbo Unido 5.26. D. La Serena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates D. La Serena as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on D. La Serena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio La Portada de La Serena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. La Serena 51% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG D. La Serena 1.57 / Coquimbo Unido 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: D. La Serena attack 0.911 / def 1.035 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.718 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: D. La Serena (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
D. La Serena xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Coquimbo Unido xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What was the final score in D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido?
D. La Serena 1 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What competition is D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives D. La Serena a 51% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making D. La Serena the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido in?
D. La Serena (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. D. La Serena home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from D. La Serena's attack rating (0.91) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus D. La Serena's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
D. La Serena Win
51%
1.97
30%
3.31
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
D. La Serena xG
Total xG
2.47
0.90
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
4%
25.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for D. La Serena and 0.90 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. La Serena
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
D. La Serena's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
D. La Serena
1
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido?
From 5 meetings on record, D. La Serena have won 0, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when D. La Serena 0-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. La Serena home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio La Portada de La Serena, Regular Season - 4, as D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.57 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.90 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.72 / defence 1.22, drawn from 35/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 51% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 19%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.