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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over D. La Serena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat D. La Serena 2-4 at Estadio La Portada, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 0.95 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.00 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. D. La Serena beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.92 / defence 0.69, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 33% | Draw 31% | Coquimbo Unido 36%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights