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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as D. La Serena defy the odds to beat A. Italiano 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

D. La Serena beat A. Italiano 2-1 at Estadio La Portada, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.43 xG and A. Italiano 1.83 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. A. Italiano landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.78 / defence 1.28 against A. Italiano attack 1.24 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 30% | Draw 23% | A. Italiano 47%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual D. La Serena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (D. La Serena 54%, A. Italiano 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

D. La Serena's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

A. Italiano's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, A. Italiano arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with D. La Serena winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights