Curico Unido 1-2 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Curico Unido take on Universidad de Chile.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Curico Unido host Universidad de Chile at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 July 2021 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Curico Unido — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Curico Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Curico Unido have gone 1W 3D 1L this season (5 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Curico Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Universidad de Chile stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Universidad de Chile — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Curico Unido in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Universidad de Chile in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Curico Unido 50% versus Universidad de Chile 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Curico Unido 30% | Universidad de Chile 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.01 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 1.005 / defence 1.276 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.762 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 0.902. Data: 10 Curico Unido games / 10 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 35% | Draw 37% | Universidad de Chile 28%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Universidad de Chile 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Curico Unido 80% | Universidad de Chile 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 35% | Draw 37% | Universidad de Chile 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Curico Unido 1.01 / Universidad de Chile 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 1.005 / def 1.276 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.762 / def 1.036 | league avg home 0.966 / away 0.902 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Universidad de Chile xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Curico Unido 1 - 2 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 35% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Curico Unido and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Universidad de Chile?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Curico Unido and Universidad de Chile in?
Curico Unido (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Curico Unido's attack rating (1.00) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus Curico Unido's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
37%
2.70
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
1.88
0.88
Universidad de Chile xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Curico Unido and 0.88 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Curico Unido come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 3D 6L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Curico Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Universidad de Chile sit at 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Universidad de Chile carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Curico Unido — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Curico Unido's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.60 PPG overall — Curico Unido are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Universidad de Chile have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Universidad de Chile's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Curico Unido are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 0.90 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Universidad de Chile in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Blended
Universidad de Chile
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Curico Unido and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Curico Unido have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Curico Unido at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Curico Unido's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Curico Unido at home: 1.20 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Curico Unido or Universidad de Chile been keeping clean sheets recently?
Curico Unido have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Universidad de Chile in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Curico Unido's record when hosting Universidad de Chile specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Curico Unido
2
Draws
2
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Universidad de Chile?
From 6 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 2, Universidad de Chile have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2023, when Universidad de Chile 1-1 Curico Unido.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Universidad de Chile tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Curico Unido 80%, Universidad de Chile 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Curico Unido) and 40% (Universidad de Chile).
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile in 40%; Universidad de Chile in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Curico Unido play Universidad de Chile?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Curico Unido's games and 40% of Universidad de Chile's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Curico Unido vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Curico Unido's recent games and 40% of Universidad de Chile's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Curico Unido and Universidad de Chile tend to score early?
Curico Unido have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Universidad de Chile in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Universidad de Chile defy the odds to beat Curico Unido 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Curico Unido 1-2 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.01 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.88 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Universidad de Chile outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 1.00 / defence 1.28 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.76 / defence 1.04, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 35% | Draw 37% | Universidad de Chile 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Universidad de Chile win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Curico Unido 30%, Universidad de Chile 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Curico Unido's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Curico Unido (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.