Curico Unido 3-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Curico Unido at 76%, yet other data sources diverge — this Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido meet at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Primera División, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 May 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Curico Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Curico Unido have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 2.50 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 1.302 / defence 0.881 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.761 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.031. Curico Unido carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Coquimbo Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Curico Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Curico Unido games / 14 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 76% | Draw 16% | Coquimbo Unido 8%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | Coquimbo Unido 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Curico Unido (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Curico Unido are the pick at 76% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 76% | Draw 16% | Coquimbo Unido 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 46% | xG Curico Unido 2.50 / Coquimbo Unido 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 1.302 / def 0.881 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.761 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Curico Unido (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Coquimbo Unido xG
46%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 01:30 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido?
Curico Unido 3 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 76% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 8% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Curico Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido in?
Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Curico Unido home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Curico Unido's attack rating (1.30) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.76x) against Curico Unido's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 46/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Curico Unido Win
76%
1.31
16%
6.33
8%
12.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
3.19
0.69
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.33
16%
Draw
12.82
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
8%
12.17
Win to Nil
38%
2.62
1%
156.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Curico Unido and 0.69 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Curico Unido won 3-0 on 28 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Curico Unido have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Curico Unido
1
Draws
1
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido?
From 4 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 13 July 2023, when Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Coquimbo Unido?
Curico Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Curico Unido run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Curico Unido beat Coquimbo Unido 3-0 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 2.50 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.69 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 1.30 / defence 0.88 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.76 / defence 1.29, drawn from 46/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 76% | Draw 16% | Coquimbo Unido 8%, with Curico Unido to win its most likely call at 76%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.