Curico Unido 1-2 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Curico Unido at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Curico Unido vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Curico Unido host Colo Colo at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 May 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Curico Unido stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Curico Unido have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primera División games this season, Colo Colo have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Colo Colo — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Curico Unido, 1 for Colo Colo and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Curico Unido in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Colo Colo in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Curico Unido 56% versus Colo Colo 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Curico Unido 38% | Colo Colo 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.36 xG and Colo Colo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 1.210 / defence 0.752 | Colo Colo attack 1.233 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 0.998. Colo Colo have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 0.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Curico Unido's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Curico Unido games / 43 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 46% | Draw 29% | Colo Colo 25%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Colo Colo 4.00. Curico Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Curico Unido are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Colo Colo (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Curico Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Curico Unido 50% | Colo Colo 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 46% | Draw 29% | Colo Colo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Curico Unido 1.36 / Colo Colo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 1.210 / def 0.752 | Colo Colo attack 1.233 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.317 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Curico Unido (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Colo Colo xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Colo Colo kick off?
Curico Unido vs Colo Colo kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 9 May 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Colo Colo?
Curico Unido 1 - 2 Colo Colo.
Where is Curico Unido vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Colo Colo part of?
Curico Unido vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 46% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Curico Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Curico Unido and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Colo Colo?
Record (2 meetings): Curico Unido 0W | Draws 1 | Colo Colo 1W.
What form are Curico Unido and Colo Colo in?
Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Curico Unido's attack at 1.21x the league average against Colo Colo's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Curico Unido's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Curico Unido Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.48
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
2.29
0.93
Colo Colo xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
6%
15.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Curico Unido and 0.93 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Curico Unido come into this having played 32 games, going 8W 13D 11L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Colo Colo sit at 1.94 PPG from 32 outings (19W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Curico Unido — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Curico Unido's home form reads 4W 8D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Colo Colo have taken 2.06 points per game from 16 outings (10W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Curico Unido are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.53 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Current Season
Colo Colo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Curico Unido and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Curico Unido have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 19W 5D 8L in their last 32 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Curico Unido at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Curico Unido at home: 1.25 PPG; Colo Colo away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Curico Unido or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Curico Unido have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Curico Unido's record when hosting Colo Colo specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Curico Unido
2
Draws
3
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Colo Colo?
From 6 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 1, Colo Colo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2023, when Curico Unido 0-1 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Curico Unido 62%, Colo Colo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Curico Unido) and 50% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Curico Unido keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Colo Colo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Curico Unido play Colo Colo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Curico Unido's games and 50% of Colo Colo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Curico Unido vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Curico Unido's recent games and 50% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Curico Unido and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Curico Unido have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Colo Colo defy the odds to beat Curico Unido 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Curico Unido 1-2 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.36 xG and Colo Colo 0.93 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Colo Colo outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 1.21 / defence 0.75 against Colo Colo attack 1.23 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 46% | Draw 29% | Colo Colo 25%, with Curico Unido to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Colo Colo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Curico Unido 38%, Colo Colo 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Curico Unido's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Colo Colo's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Curico Unido (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.