Curico Unido 0-0 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Curico Unido vs Colo Colo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Curico Unido host Colo Colo at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Primera División, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 November 2021 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Curico Unido stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Curico Unido have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Colo Colo have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Colo Colo — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Curico Unido register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Colo Colo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Curico Unido, 1 for Colo Colo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Colo Colo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Curico Unido in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Colo Colo in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Curico Unido 55% versus Colo Colo 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Curico Unido 41% | Colo Colo 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.01 xG and Colo Colo 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 0.858 / defence 1.155 | Colo Colo attack 1.168 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.299. Data: 29 Curico Unido games / 29 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 22% | Draw 24% | Colo Colo 54%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Colo Colo 1.85. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colo Colo are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Curico Unido 60% | Colo Colo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 22% | Draw 24% | Colo Colo 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Curico Unido 1.01 / Colo Colo 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 0.858 / def 1.155 | Colo Colo attack 1.168 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Colo Colo xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Colo Colo kick off?
Curico Unido vs Colo Colo kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Colo Colo?
Curico Unido 0 - 0 Colo Colo.
Where is Curico Unido vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Colo Colo part of?
Curico Unido vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 22% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Curico Unido and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Colo Colo?
Record (1 meetings): Curico Unido 0W | Draws 0 | Colo Colo 1W.
What form are Curico Unido and Colo Colo in?
Curico Unido (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Colo Colo (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Curico Unido's attack at 0.86x the league average against Colo Colo's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Curico Unido's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
22%
4.64
24%
4.17
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
2.77
1.75
Colo Colo xG
4.64
22%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
26.76
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Curico Unido and 1.75 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Curico Unido come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 10D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Colo Colo sit at 2.10 PPG from 29 outings (19W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Curico Unido — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Curico Unido's home form reads 4W 6D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Colo Colo have taken 2.29 points per game from 14 outings (10W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Curico Unido are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.69 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Current Season
Colo Colo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Curico Unido and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Curico Unido have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 19W 4D 6L in their last 29 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Curico Unido at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Curico Unido at home: 1.29 PPG; Colo Colo away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Curico Unido or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Curico Unido have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Curico Unido's record when hosting Colo Colo specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Curico Unido
2
Draws
3
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Colo Colo?
From 6 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 1, Colo Colo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2023, when Curico Unido 0-1 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Curico Unido 64%, Colo Colo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Curico Unido) and 57% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Curico Unido play Colo Colo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Curico Unido's games and 57% of Colo Colo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Curico Unido vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Curico Unido's recent games and 57% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Curico Unido and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Curico Unido have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Curico Unido's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Curico Unido and Colo Colo finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 32, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.01 xG and Colo Colo 1.75 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Curico Unido fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Colo Colo landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Colo Colo attack 1.17 / defence 1.13, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 22% | Draw 24% | Colo Colo 54%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Curico Unido 41%, Colo Colo 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Curico Unido's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Colo Colo's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Curico Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.