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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Universidad de Chile 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.41 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.76 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.84 / defence 0.72 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 53% | Draw 27% | Universidad de Chile 20%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 52%, Universidad de Chile 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights