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Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union La Calera.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Union La Calera 2-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.70 xG and Union La Calera 0.83 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union La Calera landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against Union La Calera attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 58% | Draw 24% | Union La Calera 18%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 42%, Union La Calera 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Union La Calera's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights