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Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face Union La Calera.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera meet at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 20:30 UTC.

Current Form

Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 8W 2D 0L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.

Union La Calera have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Union La Calera away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Coquimbo Unido. A 2.30 PPG lead over Union La Calera (3.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Coquimbo Unido lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Union La Calera goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 44% versus Union La Calera 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Coquimbo Unido 42% | Union La Calera 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.70 xG and Union La Calera 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.049 / defence 0.796 | Union La Calera attack 0.927 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.125. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Coquimbo Unido games / 55 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 58% | Draw 24% | Union La Calera 18%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Union La Calera 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Union La Calera 40% BTTS from recent games.

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