🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Union Espanola.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Union Espanola 4-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.50 xG and Union Espanola 0.61 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Espanola outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.07 / defence 0.77 against Union Espanola attack 0.69 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 59% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 15%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 42%, Union Espanola 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Union Espanola's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights