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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Palestino encounter.

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Analysis

Palestino make the trip to Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to face Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Coquimbo Unido's home record at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Palestino have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Primera División this season, Palestino have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Coquimbo Unido's 2.80 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Palestino's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Palestino in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Coquimbo Unido lead 1W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Coquimbo Unido half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Palestino half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 47% versus Palestino 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 43% | Palestino 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.60 xG and Palestino 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.153 / defence 0.957 | Palestino attack 1.095 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.031. Data: 31 Coquimbo Unido games / 31 Palestino games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Draw 25% | Palestino 26%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Palestino 3.85. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Palestino 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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