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Stalemate at Coquimbo Unido's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido and Palestino finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.04 xG and Palestino 0.91 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Palestino landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Palestino attack 1.20 / defence 0.71, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 38% | Draw 31% | Palestino 31%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 52%, Palestino 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG, Palestino 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights