Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 6 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Nublense to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Nublense — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Nublense have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.48 xG and Nublense 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.153 / defence 1.367 | Nublense attack 1.088 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.204. Data: 5 Coquimbo Unido games / 37 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 30% | Draw 26% | Nublense 44%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Nublense 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nublense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 30% | Draw 26% | Nublense 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.48 / Nublense 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.153 / def 1.367 | Nublense attack 1.088 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Nublense (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Nublense xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Coquimbo Unido 0 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 30% chance of winning, Nublense a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Nublense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Nublense away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.15x the league average against Nublense's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nublense's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
30%
3.29
26%
3.88
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
3.27
1.79
Nublense xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
5%
19.70
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.79 for Nublense, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
Nublense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Nublense specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Coquimbo Unido
3
Draws
3
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Nublense?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, Nublense have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Nublense.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Nublense edge out Coquimbo Unido 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Coquimbo Unido 0-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.48 xG and Nublense 1.79 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.15 / defence 1.37 against Nublense attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 5/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 30% | Draw 26% | Nublense 44%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.