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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Nublense 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Nublense 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.24 xG and Nublense 0.93 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.05 / defence 0.81 against Nublense attack 1.03 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 43% | Draw 29% | Nublense 28%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 43%, Nublense 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Nublense's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights