🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Everton de Vina travel to to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Coquimbo Unido's home record at : 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Primera División this season, Everton de Vina have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Coquimbo Unido) versus 1.60 (Everton de Vina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for Everton de Vina and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 49% versus Everton de Vina 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 47% | Everton de Vina 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.34 xG and Everton de Vina 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.939 / defence 0.845 | Everton de Vina attack 1.104 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.198. Data: 45 Coquimbo Unido games / 45 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 42% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 31%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Everton de Vina 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Everton de Vina 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights