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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Deportes Limache 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Limache 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.74 xG and Deportes Limache 0.64 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.04 / defence 0.72 against Deportes Limache attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 64% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 13%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 35%, Deportes Limache 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time, and conceded here.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights