Coquimbo Unido 2-1 D. La Serena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face D. La Serena.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees D. La Serena travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Coquimbo Unido have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
Looking at all fixtures this season, D. La Serena stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for D. La Serena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
D. La Serena's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Coquimbo Unido are in the better shape of the two on current Primera División data — 2.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 0 for D. La Serena and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2025, ended 4–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Coquimbo Unido in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
D. La Serena in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 37% versus D. La Serena 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 41% | D. La Serena 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.80 xG and D. La Serena 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.059 / defence 0.729 | D. La Serena attack 0.899 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.146. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Coquimbo Unido games / 27 D. La Serena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 62% | Draw 22% | D. La Serena 15%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | D. La Serena 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Coquimbo Unido 40% | D. La Serena 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 62% | Draw 22% | D. La Serena 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 44% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.80 / D. La Serena 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.059 / def 0.729 | D. La Serena attack 0.899 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.75
D. La Serena xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 1 D. La Serena.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 62% chance of winning, D. La Serena a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena?
Record (3 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 2W | Draws 1 | D. La Serena 0W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. D. La Serena (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (1.06) and D. La Serena's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, D. La Serena's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
62%
1.60
22%
4.45
15%
6.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.55
0.75
D. La Serena xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
6.63
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
29%
3.39
2%
40.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.75 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido's recent record stands at 21W 5D 1L from 27 games, a 2.52 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
D. La Serena, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 14L across 27 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for D. La Serena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Coquimbo Unido by 1.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over D. La Serena heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Coquimbo Unido have managed 10W 3D 0L from 13 games — 2.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
D. La Serena's away record stands at 2W 2D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.48 conceded per game recently; D. La Serena are on 1.15 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: D. La Serena in 74%.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
D. La Serena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 21W 5D 1L in their last 27 games (2.52 PPG), while D. La Serena have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or D. La Serena away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.54 PPG; D. La Serena away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or D. La Serena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, D. La Serena in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting D. La Serena specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Coquimbo Unido
2
Draws
0
D. La Serena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena?
From 6 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, D. La Serena have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-1 D. La Serena.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
D. La Serena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Coquimbo Unido at 46%, D. La Serena at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Coquimbo Unido) and 69% (D. La Serena).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / D. La Serena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play D. La Serena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 85% of D. La Serena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 69% of D. La Serena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 31% of their recent matches, D. La Serena in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out D. La Serena 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat D. La Serena 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.80 xG and D. La Serena 0.75 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.06 / defence 0.73 against D. La Serena attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 62% | Draw 22% | D. La Serena 15%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 41%, D. La Serena 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
D. La Serena's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.