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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Concepción defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Concepción beat Coquimbo Unido 0-1 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 2.32 xG and Concepción 0.76 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Concepción attack 0.81 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 72% | Draw 17% | Concepción 11%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a Concepción win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights