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Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Colo Colo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat Colo Colo 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.46 xG and Colo Colo 0.87 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Colo Colo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.06 / defence 0.86 against Colo Colo attack 0.89 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 51% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 22%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 43%, Colo Colo 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Colo Colo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.91 PPG, Colo Colo 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights