Coquimbo Unido 2-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 8 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Cobresal to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 March 2023 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Cobresal have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cobresal's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Coquimbo Unido) versus 1.50 (Cobresal). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Coquimbo Unido register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cobresal in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Coquimbo Unido, 1 for Cobresal and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cobresal trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 57% versus Cobresal 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 50% | Cobresal 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.92 xG and Cobresal 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.013 / defence 0.952 | Cobresal attack 1.123 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.273. Data: 37 Coquimbo Unido games / 37 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 49% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 26%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Cobresal 3.85. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Cobresal 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Monday 13 Mar 2023, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 49% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.92 / Cobresal 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.013 / def 0.952 | Cobresal attack 1.123 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Cobresal xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal kicked off at 23:30 on Monday 13 March 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 49% chance of winning, Cobresal a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
Record (2 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Cobresal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
49%
2.02
24%
4.10
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
3.28
1.36
Cobresal xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
15%
6.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
4%
25.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.36 for Cobresal, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 6D 17L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Cobresal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 5W 3D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.47 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 games (0.90 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Cobresal away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.20 PPG; Cobresal away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Coquimbo Unido have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, Cobresal have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 3-2 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 60%, Cobresal 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Coquimbo Unido) and 60% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido have failed to score in 27% of games; Cobresal in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 60% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 60% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Cobresal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 8, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.92 xG and Cobresal 1.36 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Cobresal attack 1.12 / defence 1.19, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 49% | Draw 24% | Cobresal 26%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 50%, Cobresal 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cobresal arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Coquimbo Unido winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.