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Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face Cobresal.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 8 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Cobresal to Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 April 2026 at 21:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 9W 1D 0L at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Primera División games this season, Cobresal have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cobresal's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Coquimbo Unido: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Cobresal, with 1 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Coquimbo Unido and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Coquimbo Unido trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Cobresal trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 47% versus Cobresal 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 43% | Cobresal 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.79 xG and Cobresal 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.911 / defence 0.987 | Cobresal attack 1.013 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.105. Cobresal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Coquimbo Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Coquimbo Unido games / 37 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 53% | Draw 23% | Cobresal 23%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Cobresal 4.35. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Cobresal 40%.

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