Coquimbo Unido 3-2 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 5 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Antofagasta to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antofagasta stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Antofagasta have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.24 xG and Antofagasta 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.018 / defence 1.333 | Antofagasta attack 1.042 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.193. Data: 4 Coquimbo Unido games / 36 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 27% | Draw 28% | Antofagasta 45%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Antofagasta 2.22. Antofagasta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antofagasta as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antofagasta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 27% | Draw 28% | Antofagasta 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.24 / Antofagasta 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.018 / def 1.333 | Antofagasta attack 1.042 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Antofagasta xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta?
Coquimbo Unido 3 - 2 Antofagasta.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 27% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Antofagasta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Antofagasta in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Antofagasta away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Antofagasta's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Antofagasta's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
27%
3.73
28%
3.61
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.89
1.66
Antofagasta xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
5%
19.53
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.66 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
Antofagasta
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Antofagasta runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
1
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Antofagasta?
From 2 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, Antofagasta have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when Antofagasta 2-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat Antofagasta 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Antofagasta 3-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.24 xG and Antofagasta 1.66 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.02 / defence 1.33 against Antofagasta attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 4/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 27% | Draw 28% | Antofagasta 45%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.