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Dominant Coquimbo Unido run riot with a 3-0 hammering of A. Italiano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coquimbo Unido beat A. Italiano 3-0 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.77 xG and A. Italiano 1.13 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. A. Italiano landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against A. Italiano attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 52% | Draw 23% | A. Italiano 24%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 43%, A. Italiano 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. A. Italiano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights