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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Concepción cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Huachipato.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Concepción beat Huachipato 2-0 at Municipal de Collao, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Concepción 0.87 xG and Huachipato 1.47 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Concepción beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Huachipato landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concepción attack 0.66 / defence 1.37 against Huachipato attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Concepción 22% | Draw 26% | Huachipato 51%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Concepción win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights