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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Concepción defy the odds to beat Deportes Limache 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Concepción beat Deportes Limache 3-2 at Estadio Ester Roa, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Concepción 1.42 xG and Deportes Limache 1.55 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Concepción beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concepción attack 0.77 / defence 1.16 against Deportes Limache attack 1.11 / defence 1.20, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Concepción 35% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 41%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Concepción win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights