🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Concepción and D. La Serena share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Ester Roa, Regular Season - 10, as Concepción and D. La Serena drew 3-3 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Concepción 1.07 xG and D. La Serena 1.11 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Concepción beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. D. La Serena outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concepción attack 0.61 / defence 1.20 against D. La Serena attack 0.90 / defence 1.11, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Concepción 34% | Draw 29% | D. La Serena 36%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights