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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Universidad de Chile defy the odds to beat Colo Colo 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Universidad de Chile beat Colo Colo 0-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.39 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.81 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Colo Colo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.15 / defence 0.86 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 51% | Draw 28% | Universidad de Chile 22%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Universidad de Chile win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 52%, Universidad de Chile 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colo Colo 1.85 PPG, Universidad de Chile 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights