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Shock result as Colo Colo defy the odds to beat Universidad de Chile 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.64 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.75 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.22 / defence 1.21 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.29 / defence 0.91, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 36% | Draw 23% | Universidad de Chile 41%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Colo Colo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 48%, Universidad de Chile 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Universidad de Chile's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colo Colo 1.84 PPG, Universidad de Chile 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colo Colo win broke the near-deadlock. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights