Colo Colo 0-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colo Colo vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Colo Colo host Union La Calera at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 March 2021 at 21:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.04 xG and Union La Calera 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Union La Calera attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 0.508. Data: 0 Colo Colo games / 0 Union La Calera games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 45% | Draw 41% | Union La Calera 14%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 2.22 | Draw 2.44 | Union La Calera 7.14. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (41%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Union La Calera's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 41% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Mar 2021, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 45% | Draw 41% | Union La Calera 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG Colo Colo 1.04 / Union La Calera 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Union La Calera attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.068 / away 0.508 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Union La Calera xG
29%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Union La Calera kick off?
Colo Colo vs Union La Calera kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 27 March 2021 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Colo Colo 0 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is Colo Colo vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Union La Calera part of?
Colo Colo vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 45% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 14% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Colo Colo and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colo Colo and Union La Calera in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (0.85) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Colo Colo's defence, projects 0.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (20.9%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
45%
2.21
41%
2.46
14%
7.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
21.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
1.54
0.50
Union La Calera xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
7.13
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.48
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
5%
20.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.4 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 22.4 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.9%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.50 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Colo Colo go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2022, when Colo Colo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colo Colo's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Colo Colo
2
Draws
1
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 7, Union La Calera have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Colo Colo 1-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Union La Calera?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Colo Colo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo and Union La Calera finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.04 xG and Union La Calera 0.50 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Colo Colo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Union La Calera attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 45% | Draw 41% | Union La Calera 14%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 41%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.