Colo Colo 0-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colo Colo vs Union Espanola encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Colo Colo and Union Espanola meet at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Colo Colo's overall Primera División record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Colo Colo at Estadio Monumental David Arellano this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Monumental David Arellano. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union Espanola have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Union Espanola away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Colo Colo's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Union Espanola's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Colo Colo lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Colo Colo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 40% versus Union Espanola 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 40% | Union Espanola 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.75 xG and Union Espanola 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.068 / defence 0.734 | Union Espanola attack 0.820 / defence 1.600. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.242. Union Espanola bring a strong defensive rating of 1.600 — this is suppressing Colo Colo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Colo Colo's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Colo Colo games / 30 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 60% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 15%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Union Espanola 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 20% | Union Espanola 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 60% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Colo Colo 1.75 / Union Espanola 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.068 / def 0.734 | Union Espanola attack 0.820 / def 1.600 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Union Espanola xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Union Espanola kick off?
Colo Colo vs Union Espanola kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Colo Colo 0 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is Colo Colo vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Union Espanola part of?
Colo Colo vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 60% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Colo Colo and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union Espanola?
Record (1 meetings): Colo Colo 1W | Draws 0 | Union Espanola 0W.
What form are Colo Colo and Union Espanola in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (1.07) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.82x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
60%
1.65
25%
4.01
15%
6.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.50
0.75
Union Espanola xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
6.87
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
3%
39.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.75 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colo Colo come into this having played 30 games, going 19W 5D 6L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (14W 3D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Colo Colo's home form reads 9W 2D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (5W 1D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Espanola's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Colo Colo are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.57 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola in 70%.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 19W 5D 6L in their last 30 games (2.07 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 14W 3D 13L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Union Espanola away?
Colo Colo's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 1.93 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Colo Colo have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-0 on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Colo Colo
1
Draws
3
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 6, Union Espanola have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Union Espanola 1-2 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Union Espanola?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 27%, Union Espanola 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Colo Colo) and 60% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Union Espanola in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 53% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Colo Colo's recent games and 60% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Espanola defy the odds to beat Colo Colo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Colo Colo 0-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 33, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.75 xG and Union Espanola 0.75 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Colo Colo fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.07 / defence 0.73 against Union Espanola attack 0.82 / defence 1.60, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 60% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 15%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Union Espanola win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 40%, Union Espanola 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Union Espanola winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Espanola (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.