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Dominant Colo Colo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Union Espanola.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Union Espanola 4-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.66 xG and Union Espanola 0.93 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Colo Colo beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Union Espanola attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 55% | Draw 24% | Union Espanola 21%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 43%, Union Espanola 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Union Espanola (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights