Colo Colo 1-2 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Colo Colo take on Palestino.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Colo Colo host Palestino at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 0.88 xG and Palestino 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 0.842 / defence 1.081 | Palestino attack 0.871 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.028. Data: 6 Colo Colo games / 4 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 30% | Draw 36% | Palestino 34%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Palestino 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 30% | Draw 36% | Palestino 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Colo Colo 0.88 / Palestino 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 0.842 / def 1.081 | Palestino attack 0.871 / def 1.080 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Palestino xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Palestino kick off?
Colo Colo vs Palestino kicked off at 01:30 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Palestino?
Colo Colo 1 - 2 Palestino.
Where is Colo Colo vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Palestino part of?
Colo Colo vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 30% chance of winning, Palestino a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Colo Colo and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Palestino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colo Colo and Palestino in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Colo Colo's attack at 0.84x the league average against Palestino's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Colo Colo's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.37
36%
2.79
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
1.85
0.97
Palestino xG
3.37
30%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.97 for Palestino, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
Palestino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2022, when Colo Colo won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colo Colo's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Colo Colo
2
Draws
2
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 6, Palestino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Colo Colo 0-1 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Palestino?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Colo Colo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Colo Colo 1-2 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 0.88 xG and Palestino 0.97 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palestino outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Palestino attack 0.87 / defence 1.08, drawn from 6/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 30% | Draw 36% | Palestino 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Palestino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.