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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colo Colo and Nublense share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo and Nublense finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.99 xG and Nublense 0.64 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nublense outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.04 / defence 0.82 against Nublense attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 37/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 69% | Draw 20% | Nublense 11%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 43%, Nublense 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Colo Colo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights