🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Colo Colo and Huachipato share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 18, as Colo Colo and Huachipato drew 2-2 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 2.82 xG and Huachipato 0.90 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Colo Colo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Huachipato outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.35 / defence 0.88 against Huachipato attack 0.94 / defence 1.42, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 77% | Draw 14% | Huachipato 9%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 49%, Huachipato 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Huachipato's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Colo Colo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Huachipato (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights