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Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Everton de Vina.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat Everton de Vina 2-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.79 xG and Everton de Vina 0.98 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Everton de Vina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.18 / defence 1.08 against Everton de Vina attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 56% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 21%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 52%, Everton de Vina 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Colo Colo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights