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Poisson model favours Colo Colo (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Colo Colo face Everton de Vina.

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Full Analysis

Estadio Monumental David Arellano plays host to Colo Colo versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 23:30 UTC.

Form

Colo Colo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Colo Colo's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Monumental David Arellano this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Colo Colo's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Colo Colo have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 9 meetings, with Everton de Vina managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Colo Colo a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Colo Colo half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 47% versus Everton de Vina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 52% | Everton de Vina 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.79 xG and Everton de Vina 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.178 / defence 1.081 | Everton de Vina attack 0.906 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.005. Data: 31 Colo Colo games / 31 Everton de Vina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Colo Colo 56% | Draw 23% | Everton de Vina 21%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Everton de Vina 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 70% | Everton de Vina 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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