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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Colo Colo and Deportes Limache share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo and Deportes Limache finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 2.44 xG and Deportes Limache 0.84 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Limache outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.24 / defence 0.99 against Deportes Limache attack 0.78 / defence 1.27, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 73% | Draw 16% | Deportes Limache 11%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 50%, Deportes Limache 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Deportes Limache's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Colo Colo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights