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Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out D. La Serena 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Colo Colo beat D. La Serena 2-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 2.41 xG and D. La Serena 0.89 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.34 / defence 0.87 against D. La Serena attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 71% | Draw 17% | D. La Serena 12%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 53%, D. La Serena 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Colo Colo's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

D. La Serena's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Colo Colo 1.40 PPG, D. La Serena 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colo Colo win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights