Cobresal 0-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host Union La Calera at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 June 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.44 xG and Union La Calera 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.158 / defence 1.024 | Union La Calera attack 0.673 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 1.016. Union La Calera bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Cobresal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Cobresal games / 8 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 55% | Draw 27% | Union La Calera 18%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Union La Calera 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Cobresal (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Jun 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 55% | Draw 27% | Union La Calera 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG Cobresal 1.44 / Union La Calera 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.158 / def 1.024 | Union La Calera attack 0.673 / def 1.270 | league avg home 0.977 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Union La Calera xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Union La Calera kick off?
Cobresal vs Union La Calera kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 5 June 2021 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Cobresal 0 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Cobresal vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Union La Calera part of?
Cobresal vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 55% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cobresal and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and Union La Calera in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.16) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.70
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.14
0.70
Union La Calera xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
4%
23.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.70 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Pre-Season
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union La Calera won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cobresal's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cobresal
1
Draws
3
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 6, Union La Calera have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Union La Calera 3-1 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Cobresal 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Cobresal 0-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.44 xG and Union La Calera 0.70 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cobresal fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.16 / defence 1.02 against Union La Calera attack 0.67 / defence 1.27, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 55% | Draw 27% | Union La Calera 18%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Union La Calera win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.