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Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Union La Calera 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat Union La Calera 1-0 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.21 xG and Union La Calera 0.81 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against Union La Calera attack 0.73 / defence 0.85, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 46% | Draw 30% | Union La Calera 25%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 61%, Union La Calera 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Union La Calera's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.27 PPG, Union La Calera 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights