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Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Union Espanola 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cobresal beat Union Espanola 1-0 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.81 xG and Union Espanola 1.00 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cobresal fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Union Espanola landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Union Espanola attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cobresal 56% | Draw 23% | Union Espanola 21%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 61%, Union Espanola 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cobresal's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Union Espanola's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.31 PPG, Union Espanola 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights