Cobresal 3-1 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cobresal vs U. Catolica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host U. Catolica at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio El Cobre — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
U. Catolica's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. U. Catolica are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cobresal register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, U. Catolica in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cobresal have won 0, U. Catolica 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cobresal in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
U. Catolica in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 59% versus U. Catolica 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 53% | U. Catolica 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.66 xG and U. Catolica 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.049 / defence 1.136 | U. Catolica attack 1.350 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.190. U. Catolica have an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Cobresal games / 36 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 34% | Draw 25% | U. Catolica 41%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | U. Catolica 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 70% | U. Catolica 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 34% | Draw 25% | U. Catolica 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Cobresal 1.66 / U. Catolica 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.049 / def 1.136 | U. Catolica attack 1.350 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.82
U. Catolica xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs U. Catolica kick off?
Cobresal vs U. Catolica kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Cobresal 3 - 1 U. Catolica.
Where is Cobresal vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs U. Catolica part of?
Cobresal vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 34% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Cobresal and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
Record (1 meetings): Cobresal 0W | Draws 0 | U. Catolica 1W.
What form are Cobresal and U. Catolica in?
Cobresal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. U. Catolica (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.05x the league average against U. Catolica's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
34%
2.93
25%
3.99
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.48
1.82
U. Catolica xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
6%
18.17
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Cobresal and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.82 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 11W 7D 14L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
U. Catolica's form line: 22W 2D 8L from 32 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, U. Catolica are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobresal.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (7W 4D 5L).
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 8W 0D 8L from 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of U. Catolica's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 2.03 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: U. Catolica in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
U. Catolica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 22W 2D 8L in their last 32 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or U. Catolica away?
Cobresal's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.56 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Cobresal or U. Catolica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, U. Catolica in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cobresal's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cobresal
3
Draws
4
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, U. Catolica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cobresal 3-2 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 62%, U. Catolica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cobresal) and 62% (U. Catolica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; U. Catolica in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play U. Catolica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cobresal's games and 50% of U. Catolica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cobresal's matches and 62% of U. Catolica's.
Do Cobresal and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over U. Catolica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat U. Catolica 3-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.66 xG and U. Catolica 1.82 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. U. Catolica landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.05 / defence 1.14 against U. Catolica attack 1.35 / defence 1.14, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 34% | Draw 25% | U. Catolica 41%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cobresal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 53%, U. Catolica 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
U. Catolica's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Cobresal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. U. Catolica (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.